HSE Schools have been waiting for the results of the latest demographic study and the report shows the student population number will not change much in the next several years.

Dr. Jerry McKibben of Mckibben Demographic Research says in his written report the HSE District total student population is forecast “to decrease by 167 students, or -1.0%, between 2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment will increase by 94 students, or 0.4%, from 2026-27 to 2031-32.”

McKibben cites reasons for the HSE student number decrease over the next five years, including an increase in empty nest households, a relatively low number of elderly housing units turning over, and adding that a flat rate is forecast for migration of young families.

“The local 18-to-24 year old population continues to leave the district, going to college or
moving to other urbanized areas,” according to the report. “This population group accounts for the largest segment of the district’s out migration flow and will increase steadily over the next 10 years. The second largest migration outflow is in the 70+ age groups.”

McKibben expects HSE Schools elementary enrollment to slowly increase over the next 10 school years.

As to the forecast for housing in the district, the report says the following:

“Even if the district continues to have some amount of annual new housing unit construction over the next 10 years, the rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.”

In the report’s executive summary, the total district enrollment is forecasted to decrease by 167 students, or -1.0%, between 2021-22 and 2026-27. Total enrollment is expected to increase by 94 students, or 0.4%, from 2026-27 to 2031-32.

The school district posted the report in advance of a work session school board meeting set for 5pm May 10th.  The session is open to the public, but will not be live-streamed or video recorded.

You may view the entire report at this link.