Russia invaded Ukraine just 2 weeks ago, but so much has happened in that short amount of time.  The United States has led an international move to isolate Russia from the rest of the world, most importantly economically, but also in the areas of the arts and sports.  Russia risks the same treatment North Korea receives from most of the world.

The grit and courage of the Ukrainian people have impressed the entire world.  Ukraine’s president refuses to leave the capital city, even after offers of safe passage from the United States.

As I read more information written by people with long and extensive knowledge of Ukraine, some important facts should be considered.  For instance, there are strong social connections between Russia and Ukraine.  Many Russians and Ukrainians marry each other, resulting in stronger family ties between the two nations.  Of those residing in the Ukraine capital of Kyiv, 20% are Russian.

One story reported by an American journalist deals with a group of Russian solders surrendering to a group of Ukrainian civilians.  The soldiers were not jailed, they were invited to homes in the area and provided a nice meal.  Each soldier was allowed to make a phone call to their respective mothers in Russia. The Russian mothers had no idea their sons were sent to occupy Ukraine.

I am hopeful that these close personal connections between the two nations, which goes back many, many years, will, at some point, lead to an end to all the fighting.  But there is one aspect of this conflicts that scares me.

Military actions almost never go as planned.  Many Western military experts are saying Russia expected to occupy Ukraine in a few days, not weeks.  The attack on a Ukrainian nuclear power plant indicates a reckless approach, whether it was orders from Moscow or a local commander’s risky decision.

There are NATO nations bordering Ukraine and the United States, along with the NATO allies, are beefing-up the military presence along the boarder with Ukraine.  Once Russia begins to occupy Ukraine, NATO and Russian military personnel and equipment will be eyeball-to-eyeball with each other.

That’s where an unexpected development could result in a conflict between Russia and NATO.  That results in World War III, pitting nuclear armed nations at war with each other.  Military people who game out what could happen in such a war have generally come to the conclusion that the end of such a conflict results in nothing but scary scenarios.

There is another wild card in this situation – China.  It appears Russia and China are cooperating, at least to some extent, but if this economic strangling of Russia continues, China will need to decide whether supporting Russia in this military adventure is worth what is happening to the world economy as a result.  China has a lot to lose if world trade is reduced.

One always holds out hope that cooler heads will eventually prevail.  But Russia’s aggressive actions against neighboring Ukraine are not decisions made by cool heads in Moscow.  The Russian government’s crackdown on independent media, including the foreign press in Russia, is an indication that the war is not going well and there are at least factions within Russia strenuously opposing the government.

The unintended consequences scare me the most.  But I also wonder how this conflict ends.