Jerry McKibben has been the demographer used by the Hamilton Southeastern (HSE) School District for many years, and his latest forecast shows a slight increase in the overall student population in the next few years and a slight decline after that.  But he also predicts a decline in the kindergarten through 4th grade population as the high school populations grows.

McKibben provided a report to the school board at Wednesday night’s regular meeting.  He said most forecasters were factoring-in a recession by this time, but the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates well below 5%, which was not predicted a year ago.

This has kept the housing market very hot.  In Fishers, there are more existing homes being sold compared to new homes being constructed.  He added that the results of the 2020 census, when released in 2021, will provide valuable data to the local school district.

The concept of the “large school effect” was explained, when some families believe their children cannot compete in a large school to participate in extra-curricular activities.  McKibben says most HSE students in this category end up attending Mount Vernon schools in neighboring Hancock County.

HSE Schools may lose a small amount of the student population over the next ten years, but will not lose nearly the number of students projected for most school districts in the state of Indiana during that same ten-year period, according to McKibben.

You can view the entire McKibben report on HSE Schools at this link.