by

Fred Swift

Hamilton County Reporter

(NOTE: This is a commentary written by Fred Swift of the Hamilton County Reporter. The views expressed are those of Fred Swift and do not necessarily reflect the views of LarryInFishers.com.  This opinion piece is posted here as part of a partnership between the Reporter and LarryInFishers.com) 

Are elections drifting toward the Democrats in Hamilton County? The outcome of the recent off-year election tends to give that impression. But, the question going forward is whether this drift will continue or will it revert in the next major election.

The county has been overwhelmingly Republican since the days of Abraham Lincoln. The number of Democrats elected to countywide office in the past 150 years can be counted on your fingers. Again, in this fall’s election, Republicans won 55 of the 56 offices at stake, but the margins noticeably narrowed.

Times have changed, there are a lot more people from different parts of the state and nation moving in, many are Republicans, but many are Democrats.

Folks who watch elections closely think there are some other likely reasons for the change in the winning GOP margins which dropped from near 70 percent Republican (and only about 30 percent Democrat) in recent elections to a 60-40 split favoring the GOP this year.

There seems to be no question that there is an anti-Trump trend among some suburban voters nationwide, especially moderate Republican women. These voters may have taken out their frustration on Senator-elect Mike Braun, a strong Trump supporter. Braun carried the county by 11,000 votes which is far less than would be expected in most elections here.

There is also an assumption that the hundreds of new apartments now found in Hamilton County may be home to voters more inclined to vote for Democrats.

There is also the unknown effect of the massive voter turnout on Election Day this year. Many more citizens voted than in most off-year elections. Both Democrats and Republicans voted in larger numbers, but the net result may have favored Democratic candidates.

And finally, there is the fact that there were more Democratic candidates on the ballot than usual this year. In past elections there were few, sometimes almost no opponents for Republican candidates. This may have encouraged some closet Democrats to show up at the polls. So, all this raises a question as to whether the next election will return to ‘normal’ meaning more typical Republican vote totals. It might well return to a more normal situation, but President Trump is almost certain to be on the ballot.

He carried the county in 2016 by 30,000 votes which was a little less than other GOP candidates. So, he may win the county again in 2020, but Hamilton County may not be his biggest county if the Braun-Donnelly result is an indication of a long-term trend.

Democrats, of course, hope the party’s fortunes continue to rise to the point where they can begin winning locally. Republicans not only hope for continuing wins, but vow to work harder to increase their winning margins.

Obviously, only time will tell, but both parties now have some results from which to get ideas of what they want and need to do in future campaigns.