Jerome McKibben has provided enrollment projections for the Hamilton Southeastern (HSE) School Corporation for many years, and has been very accurate in his past projections.  His latest look forward at local school enrollment will be a big surprise for many in the Fishers area.

Total student enrollment in the 2016-2017 school year has increased by 282 over the previous school year.  McKibben projects the following total enrollment changes over the coming years:

2017-2018              173    0.8%

2018-2019                  16    0.1%

2019-2020                  70   0.3%

2020-2021                   4    0.0%

2021-2022                -48  -0.3%

McKibben’s report shows decreases in HSE total school enrollment in years 2022-2027.

Even if the population of Fishers and the surrounding area making up the HSE School District grows in general, that doesn’t mean growth in the school population, according to McKibben.

McKibben said one factor is what he described as “the curse of the successful school district.”  Data show graduates from successful school districts do not tend to return to their home town after college graduation.  He said if 20% come back, that is a very high number.

McKibben’s study shows an inflow and outflow of residents in various stages of life, creating a situation where local school enrollment is set to stabilize and actually slightly fall in the coming years.

McKibben said there are some grade level bulges in the HSE school population, and some variance among the various elementary school boundaries.  But overall, the era of large student population growth at HSE Schools appears to be over.

The school board plans to use this data and look for a way forward on school building plans, at a board work session scheduled for 7:30am. October 24th.

You can view the entire demographic study from Dr. McKibben at this link.